RESUMEN
Thrombosis is a major clinical complication of COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 patients show changes in coagulation factors that indicate an important role for the coagulation system in the pathogenesis of COVID-19. However, the multifactorial nature of thrombosis complicates the prediction of thrombotic events based on a single hemostatic variable. We developed and validated a neural net for the prediction of COVID-19-related thrombosis. The neural net was developed based on the hemostatic and general (laboratory) variables of 149 confirmed COVID-19 patients from two cohorts: at the time of hospital admission (cohort 1 including 133 patients) and at ICU admission (cohort 2 including 16 patients). Twenty-six patients suffered from thrombosis during their hospital stay: 19 patients in cohort 1 and 7 patients in cohort 2. The neural net predicts COVID-19 related thrombosis based on C-reactive protein (relative importance 14%), sex (10%), thrombin generation (TG) time-to-tail (10%), α2-Macroglobulin (9%), TG curve width (9%), thrombin-α2-Macroglobulin complexes (9%), plasmin generation lag time (8%), serum IgM (8%), TG lag time (7%), TG time-to-peak (7%), thrombin-antithrombin complexes (5%), and age (5%). This neural net can predict COVID-19-thrombosis at the time of hospital admission with a positive predictive value of 98%-100%.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Hemostáticos , Trombosis , Antitrombinas , Proteína C-Reactiva , COVID-19/complicaciones , Fibrinolisina , Humanos , Inmunoglobulina M , Redes Neurales de la Computación , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Trombina/metabolismo , Trombosis/etiologíaRESUMEN
Thrombosis is a major clinical complication of COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 patients show changes in coagulation factors that indicate an important role for the coagulation system in the pathogenesis of COVID-19. However, the multifactorial nature of thrombosis complicates the prediction of thrombotic events based on a single hemostatic variable. We developed and validated a neural net for the prediction of COVID-19-related thrombosis. The neural net was developed based on the hemostatic and general (laboratory) variables of 149 confirmed COVID-19 patients from two cohorts: at the time of hospital admission (cohort 1 including 133 patients) and at ICU admission (cohort 2 including 16 patients). Twenty-six patients suffered from thrombosis during their hospital stay: 19 patients in cohort 1 and 7 patients in cohort 2. The neural net predicts COVID-19 related thrombosis based on C-reactive protein (relative importance 14%), sex (10%), thrombin generation (TG) time-to-tail (10%), α2-Macroglobulin (9%), TG curve width (9%), thrombin-α2-Macroglobulin complexes (9%), plasmin generation lag time (8%), serum IgM (8%), TG lag time (7%), TG time-to-peak (7%), thrombin-antithrombin complexes (5%), and age (5%). This neural net can predict COVID-19-thrombosis at the time of hospital admission with a positive predictive value of 98%-100%.